New-home inventories continue to fall

The number of newly built single-family homes on the market declined to 297,000 units in April, their lowest level since May 2001, according to a recent report by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce. The pace of new-home sales, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 units, was nearly unchanged compared with the previous month.

“The fact that the new-homes inventory is now below the 300,000 mark shows that builders have made substantial progress in winnowing down their backlogs to a much more comfortable level,” said Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). April’s results mark two consecutive years of monthly declines in the number of unsold new homes.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes recorded a marginal 0.3 percent gain to 352,000 units in April compared with March, while the inventory of new homes for sale declined 4.2 percent to 297,000 units--a 10.1-month supply at the current sales pace.

Home buyer tax credit can be applied to purchase costs

U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan recently announced that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will allow home buyers to apply the administration's new $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit toward the purchase costs of a FHA-insured home. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 offers home buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000 for purchasing their first home. Families can only access this credit after filing their tax returns with the IRS. Home buyers using FHA-approved lenders can apply the tax credit to their down payment in excess of 3.5 percent of appraised value or their closing costs, which can help achieve a lower interest rate.

Currently, borrowers applying for an FHA-insured mortgage are required to make a minimum 3.5 percent down payment on the purchase of their home. Current law does not permit approved lenders to monetize the tax credit to meet the required 3.5 percent minimum down payment, but, under the terms of the announcement, lenders can now monetize the tax credit for use as additional down payment, or for other closing costs, which can help achieve a lower interest rate.

California's Housing Picture Brightens

From the Wall Street Journal:

With the state’s median price rising for the second consecutive month in April, and sales of existing, single-family homes remaining above the 500,000 level for the eighth month in a row, California is being closely watched as a barometer of the economy. Some economists believe these two factors indicate the state’s median price could be at or near the bottom.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

· Sales of existing, single-family homes increased 49.2 percent in April in California compared with the same period a year ago, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) April sales and price report.

· As the level of unsold inventory declines, the state’s median price will likely stabilize. Inventory levels for homes in the under $500,000 segment shrank to nearly three months in April, compared with almost 10 months a year ago, while unsold inventory in the more than $1 million segment rose to approximately 17 months, compared with roughly 10 months in April 2008.

· The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during April 2009 was $256,700, an increase of 1.4 percent compared with the prior month, but a 36.5 percent decrease from the revised $404,470 median of a year ago.

· Favorable home prices in many parts of the state have led to an increase in affordability for first-time buyers. In the first quarter of 2009, affordability rose to 69 percent, enabling many to take advantage of first-time buyer programs and near record-low interest rates.

click here for the story

Market Summary for May 2009

Even with increased activity over the past few weeks, we're seeing increased downward pressure on home prices on the Coast. This pressure appears to be due to the sale of the few distressed properties that are getting so much attention. It's rather surprising to see how much a few short sales and REO's can impact the local market, but it does give some clarity to their impact on the market nationally.

Fast Facts for May 2009

Calif. median home price - March 09: $253,040 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region March 09: Santa Barbara So. Coast $825,000 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region March 09: High Desert $114,670 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Fourth Quarter 08: 59 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates - week ending 5/14/09 30-yr. fixed: 4.86% Fees/points: 0.6% 15-yr. fixed: 4.52% Fees/points: 0.6% 1-yr. adjustable: 4.71% Fees/points: 0.6% (Source: Freddie Mac)

Survey finds three of four homeowners think housing market bottom reached

Although 60 percent of homeowners believe their own home lost value during the past 12 months, in reality 80 percent of homes across the country lost value during the past 12 months, according to Zillow’s Q1 Homeowner Confidence Survey. However, 74 percent of homeowners surveyed believe their home will not decline in value in the coming six months, effectively calling a bottom to their own home's housing slide, the report said.

A significant number of potential sellers are holding back due to the current market, according to the report. When asked about future plans to sell, 31 percent of home owners said they would be at least "somewhat likely" to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround.

"While homeowners are now more realistic when looking backward, they are still pretty starry-eyed when looking forward with three out of four homeowners believing that their own homes' prices will increase or be flat over the next six months,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics. “Unfortunately, there are few markets we expect to perform this well."

Entry-Level Housing Affordability Reaches 69%

The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California stood at 69 percent in the first quarter of 2009, compared with 46 percent (revised) for the same period a year ago, according to a C.A.R. report released last week. C.A.R.’s First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase an entry-level home in California. C.A.R. also reports first-time buyer indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The Index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for first-time buyers in the state.

The minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $213,040 in California in the first quarter of 2009 was $38,090, based on an adjustable interest rate of 4.96 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $1,270 for the first quarter of 2009.

At $38,090, the minimum qualifying income was 41 percent lower than a year earlier when households needed $65,030 to qualify for a loan on an entry-level home. Recent decreases in home prices and mortgage rates have brought affordability into better alignment with the income level of a typical California household, where the median household income is $61,030.
The First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index also rose 7 percentage points in the first quarter of this year compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, due to a 14.1 percent decrease in the entry-level median home price.

At 83 percent, the High Desert region was the most affordable area in the state. The San Luis Obispo County region was the least affordable in the state at 49 percent, followed by the Orange County region at 56 percent.