C.A.R.'s California Housing Market Forecast for 2009

CAR is predicting a slowing of price drops and an increase in sales activity over the next few quarters with recovery by the end of 2009...

"Statewide median price decline to level out, sales will continue to rise."

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 15) – Home prices throughout most areas of California will post declines next year, while sales of existing homes will continue the rise in 2009, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.).

“The current uncertainty about the financial system and economy is likely to persist over the next several weeks, and could extend into next year,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “Our forecast assumes that the financial system will begin to show signs of stabilization late in 2008 and into early 2009.


“We expect that the economy will be at its weakest period over the next three quarters through the second quarter of 2009, with recessionary economic conditions throughout that time period, before we begin to see a turnaround in the second half of next year,” he said. “Going forward, a great deal depends on the state of the financial system in general and the real estate finance situation in particular, as well as the flow of distressed sales through the market. We expect sales of distressed properties to peak in early 2009 – a critical factor in the housing market that directly impacts the timeframe for stabilization in the median price.

“Looking ahead, home prices and favorable interest rates in 2009 will contribute to gains in affordability,” Brown said. “However, we need to move through the current financial crisis and restore the flow of credit so that qualified buyers are able to take advantage of improved affordability and successfully purchase homes.”


The median home price in California will decline 6 percent to $358,000 in 2009 compared with a projected median of $381,000 this year, according to the forecast. Sales for 2009 are projected to increase 12.5 percent to 445,000 units, compared with 395,600 units (projected) in 2008.


“Sales in 2008 will be ahead of last year by 12 percent, with a further increase of 12.5 percent expected in 2009,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, the next couple of quarters in late 2008 and early 2009 will be marked by seasonal decreases in activity, with a pickup expected by the second quarter of next year. At 445,000 units sales projected in 2009, the sales environment will be well above the low point of 265,000 units in late 2007.

“The median price will be influenced through the balance of 2008 by the typical seasonal decrease in home prices as well as ongoing downward pressure from distressed sales,” she said. “For all of 2008, the median price is expected to fall by 31.7 percent from $558,100 to $381,000. Next year, we’re projecting that the median price will show a 6 percent decline to $358,000.”


Don’t miss “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead?” at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach, Calif. on Thursday, Oct. 16. Scheduled from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m., “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead” panelists include Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate; Nancy Dayton Sidhu, vice president and senior economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research; and Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance; and Director of the Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA. C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young will serve as moderator.

Click here for the article and the 2009 FORECAST FACT SHEET