What's going on here?!

You might notice that the articles listed below (and those to come) seem to be contradictory in many ways. While perhaps confusing, that is certainly the state of the market at this time. I suppose that this is common in transitional markets of any kind - we just don't know where it's headed most of the time. Comps are only somewhat relevant guides for listing a property so we're seeing some homes holding steady and while at least half are taking reductions in price. However, those reductions have averaged less than 10% and homes are still selling close to asking.

What I think all of this mess means is that we're headed into a more stable, predictable and realistic market here and throughout California. And that's good for everyone.

C.A.R. reports median price of a home in California at $564,430 in May, up 8 percent from year ago; sales decrease 21.1 percent

C.A.R. REPORTS HOME SALES DECREASED 21.1 PERCENT IN MAY (click for full article)

The median price of an existing single-family home in California increased 8 percent in May and sales decreased 21.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. recently reported. "This is the first time since November 2001 that the median price did not increase by double digits, reflecting the return to the more balanced market that we have anticipated," said C.A.R. President Vince Malta. "Interest rates, while still historically low, continue to impact sales as did the inventory of homes for sale, which reached nearly a six-month supply in May."

According to the report, the median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2006 was $564,430, an 8 percent increase over the revised $522,530 median for May 2005. The May 2006 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with April's revised $561,750 median price. Also in May, closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 488,260 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 21.1 percent compared with the sales pace recorded one year earlier and down 5.6 percent from home resale activity in April.

No Statewide or National Recession on the Horizon

According the UCLA Anderson (economic forecast experts), a US real estate slowdown is expected but most other factors that generally indicate recession are not present. Home prices are expected to hold steady while sales volume should decrease. The biggest impact of this will be seen by homebuilders, mortgage companies and real estate brokers.

Click here for the article and UCLA Anderson Forecast

Outlook Strong For Sonoma County

Tourism, construction, wine industries fuel recovery despite downturn in housing market.

Click here for the Press Democrat's article on Sonoma County's future...
Growing Stronger

Market Summary for Bodega Bay, May 2006

Based on data pulled from MLS for the past 12 months, we're seeing a dramatic decrease in sales volume (by about 1/3) but a significant increase in listing price (22 to 27%). My guess is that the slower sales are caused by the local increase in listing price while many other areas are seeing a decline.

Of course, there are plenty of exceptions in the widely diverse California markets - some are once again beginning to show quick sales over asking price. Because we're somewhat buffered here on the Coast, it seems that Bodega Bay generally follows these trends (usually in a less dramatic way) after a lag period of a few months.

Below is the summarized data for the Bodega Bay area as well as Bodega Harbour specifically.

SUMMARY
Month Ending: May 31,2006
	All Bodega Bay	Bodega Harbour
HOMES
Placed in Escrow	3	2
Sold - Month	2	2
Sold - 12 Months Per.	55	40
Sold - Previous 12 Months	84	57
Median Price - 12 Months	1,010,000	1,100,000
Median Previous 12 Months	829,500	865,000
Total Listing Inventory	34	19
Previous Year Listing Inventory	23	16
LOTS
Placed in Escrow	0	0
Sold - Month	2	2
Sold - 12 Months Per.	6	1
Sold - Previous 12 Months	16	3
Median Price - 12 Months	344,000	580,000
Median Previous 12 Months	310,000	N/A
Total Listing Inventory	10	3
Previous Year Listing Inventory	3	1