Calif. median home price - September 08: $316,480(Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region September 08: Santa Barbara So. Coast $935,000 (Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region September 08: High Desert $159,720 (Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Second Quarter 08: 48 percent (Source: C.A.R.)
Mortgage rates - week ending 10/23/08 30-yr. fixed: 6.04% Fees/points: 0.6% 15-yr. fixed: 5.72% Fees/points: 0.6% 1-yr. adjustable: 5.23% Fees/points: 0.5%(Source: Freddie Mac)
31 October 2008
NEW-HOME SALES RISE 2.7 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER
Sales of newly built single-family homes posted a slight increase in September, rising 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 units, according to a U.S. Dept. of Commerce report released Monday. The report also indicated that builders are making substantial progress depleting the supply of unsold units on the market.
The number of new homes for sale fell to 394,000 units in September, compared with 425,000 units in August. At the current sales pace, there was a 10.4 months' supply of unsold new units on the market, compared with an 11.4 months' supply in August. Conversely, the median number of months that completed new homes have been on the market hit a new record of 9.1 months.
Regionally, sales activity gained 22.7 percent in the West and 0.7 percent in the South in September, but at the same time declined 21.4 percent in the Northeast and 5.8 percent in the Midwest.
The number of new homes for sale fell to 394,000 units in September, compared with 425,000 units in August. At the current sales pace, there was a 10.4 months' supply of unsold new units on the market, compared with an 11.4 months' supply in August. Conversely, the median number of months that completed new homes have been on the market hit a new record of 9.1 months.
Regionally, sales activity gained 22.7 percent in the West and 0.7 percent in the South in September, but at the same time declined 21.4 percent in the Northeast and 5.8 percent in the Midwest.
17 October 2008
C.A.R.'s California Housing Market Forecast for 2009
CAR is predicting a slowing of price drops and an increase in sales activity over the next few quarters with recovery by the end of 2009...
"Statewide median price decline to level out, sales will continue to rise."
LOS ANGELES (Oct. 15) – Home prices throughout most areas of California will post declines next year, while sales of existing homes will continue the rise in 2009, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.).
“The current uncertainty about the financial system and economy is likely to persist over the next several weeks, and could extend into next year,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “Our forecast assumes that the financial system will begin to show signs of stabilization late in 2008 and into early 2009.
“We expect that the economy will be at its weakest period over the next three quarters through the second quarter of 2009, with recessionary economic conditions throughout that time period, before we begin to see a turnaround in the second half of next year,” he said. “Going forward, a great deal depends on the state of the financial system in general and the real estate finance situation in particular, as well as the flow of distressed sales through the market. We expect sales of distressed properties to peak in early 2009 – a critical factor in the housing market that directly impacts the timeframe for stabilization in the median price.
“Looking ahead, home prices and favorable interest rates in 2009 will contribute to gains in affordability,” Brown said. “However, we need to move through the current financial crisis and restore the flow of credit so that qualified buyers are able to take advantage of improved affordability and successfully purchase homes.”
The median home price in California will decline 6 percent to $358,000 in 2009 compared with a projected median of $381,000 this year, according to the forecast. Sales for 2009 are projected to increase 12.5 percent to 445,000 units, compared with 395,600 units (projected) in 2008.
“Sales in 2008 will be ahead of last year by 12 percent, with a further increase of 12.5 percent expected in 2009,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, the next couple of quarters in late 2008 and early 2009 will be marked by seasonal decreases in activity, with a pickup expected by the second quarter of next year. At 445,000 units sales projected in 2009, the sales environment will be well above the low point of 265,000 units in late 2007.
“The median price will be influenced through the balance of 2008 by the typical seasonal decrease in home prices as well as ongoing downward pressure from distressed sales,” she said. “For all of 2008, the median price is expected to fall by 31.7 percent from $558,100 to $381,000. Next year, we’re projecting that the median price will show a 6 percent decline to $358,000.”
Don’t miss “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead?” at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach, Calif. on Thursday, Oct. 16. Scheduled from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m., “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead” panelists include Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate; Nancy Dayton Sidhu, vice president and senior economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research; and Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance; and Director of the Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA. C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young will serve as moderator.
Click here for the article and the 2009 FORECAST FACT SHEET
"Statewide median price decline to level out, sales will continue to rise."
LOS ANGELES (Oct. 15) – Home prices throughout most areas of California will post declines next year, while sales of existing homes will continue the rise in 2009, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.).
“The current uncertainty about the financial system and economy is likely to persist over the next several weeks, and could extend into next year,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “Our forecast assumes that the financial system will begin to show signs of stabilization late in 2008 and into early 2009.
“We expect that the economy will be at its weakest period over the next three quarters through the second quarter of 2009, with recessionary economic conditions throughout that time period, before we begin to see a turnaround in the second half of next year,” he said. “Going forward, a great deal depends on the state of the financial system in general and the real estate finance situation in particular, as well as the flow of distressed sales through the market. We expect sales of distressed properties to peak in early 2009 – a critical factor in the housing market that directly impacts the timeframe for stabilization in the median price.
“Looking ahead, home prices and favorable interest rates in 2009 will contribute to gains in affordability,” Brown said. “However, we need to move through the current financial crisis and restore the flow of credit so that qualified buyers are able to take advantage of improved affordability and successfully purchase homes.”
The median home price in California will decline 6 percent to $358,000 in 2009 compared with a projected median of $381,000 this year, according to the forecast. Sales for 2009 are projected to increase 12.5 percent to 445,000 units, compared with 395,600 units (projected) in 2008.
“Sales in 2008 will be ahead of last year by 12 percent, with a further increase of 12.5 percent expected in 2009,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, the next couple of quarters in late 2008 and early 2009 will be marked by seasonal decreases in activity, with a pickup expected by the second quarter of next year. At 445,000 units sales projected in 2009, the sales environment will be well above the low point of 265,000 units in late 2007.
“The median price will be influenced through the balance of 2008 by the typical seasonal decrease in home prices as well as ongoing downward pressure from distressed sales,” she said. “For all of 2008, the median price is expected to fall by 31.7 percent from $558,100 to $381,000. Next year, we’re projecting that the median price will show a 6 percent decline to $358,000.”
Don’t miss “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead?” at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach, Calif. on Thursday, Oct. 16. Scheduled from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m., “The Financial Crisis: What Lies Ahead” panelists include Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate; Nancy Dayton Sidhu, vice president and senior economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research; and Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance; and Director of the Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA. C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young will serve as moderator.
Click here for the article and the 2009 FORECAST FACT SHEET
04 October 2008
Summary of recovery/bailout plan
Here's a quick summary of the plan and what the legislation means to us as presented by the California Association of Realtors:
Earlier today, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act by a 263 to 171 vote. The legislation was quickly signed into law by President Bush, capping what has been a very tumultuous two weeks for the credit and financial markets.
This was a difficult decision for our elected representatives to make, especially given the abbreviated time period for review and debate that the gravity of the situation warranted. While passage of the Act should enable the credit markets and the U.S. financial system to set the stage for their eventual recovery, this was only the first step in what will likely take weeks and even months to wend its way through the system before reaching Main Street.
But it was an important first step. The health of the nation’s housing market is critical to the financial well being of every household in the country, and is front and center here in California.
Here’s what the legislation does:
Helps American families keep their homes by requiring the Treasury Dept. and any federal agency that owns or controls troubled mortgages to modify those mortgages wherever possible; this may include reducing the principal or interest rate; and extends till the end of 2012 the exclusion from federal income tax of mortgage debt forgiveness.
Addresses the credit crisis by allowing financial institutions to immediately sell $250 billion in troubled assets to the U.S. Treasury Department under the newly created Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Another $100 billion would be made available upon the President’s request. Should the President deem it necessary, and with Congressional review, the Treasury Dept. may utilize the remaining $350 billion;
Protects taxpayers by allowing the Treasury Dept. to take an ownership stake in participating companies. In addition, if after five years TARP has incurred a net loss, the President must propose legislation that would force participating companies to reimburse the government to make up the difference;
Sets up an insurance program, funded by the financial industry, to guarantee companies’ troubled assets, including mortgage-backed securities purchased prior to March 14 this year;
Curbs executive pay for companies utilizing TARP;
Sets up two oversight committees, a Financial Stability Board, and a congressional oversight panel, to which the Financial Stability Board would report;
Creates renewable energy tax breaks for individuals and businesses, including a deduction for the purchase of solar panels; as well as continuing other tax breaks that were set to expire; and extends relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) by another year;
Allows the SEC to suspend the required mark-to-market accounting standards and orders a study to be done on the rule’s impact on financial institutions;
Shields bank deposits by temporarily raising the FDIC insurance cap to $250,000 from $100,000; and temporarily increases the federal insurance level for credit union savings to $250,000, both till the end of 2009.
We’re appreciative of the efforts of our congressional leaders in both houses as well as of our peers at NAR. Their efforts helped secure adequate protections for both consumers and taxpayers, as well as stricter oversight protocols than what were initially contained in the legislation. C.A.R. will continue to study and report to you additional information and analysis through our weekly “C.A.R. Newsline” and “Market Matters” e-mail newsletters.
Sincerely,
William E. Brown
2008 President
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Earlier today, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act by a 263 to 171 vote. The legislation was quickly signed into law by President Bush, capping what has been a very tumultuous two weeks for the credit and financial markets.
This was a difficult decision for our elected representatives to make, especially given the abbreviated time period for review and debate that the gravity of the situation warranted. While passage of the Act should enable the credit markets and the U.S. financial system to set the stage for their eventual recovery, this was only the first step in what will likely take weeks and even months to wend its way through the system before reaching Main Street.
But it was an important first step. The health of the nation’s housing market is critical to the financial well being of every household in the country, and is front and center here in California.
Here’s what the legislation does:
Helps American families keep their homes by requiring the Treasury Dept. and any federal agency that owns or controls troubled mortgages to modify those mortgages wherever possible; this may include reducing the principal or interest rate; and extends till the end of 2012 the exclusion from federal income tax of mortgage debt forgiveness.
Addresses the credit crisis by allowing financial institutions to immediately sell $250 billion in troubled assets to the U.S. Treasury Department under the newly created Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Another $100 billion would be made available upon the President’s request. Should the President deem it necessary, and with Congressional review, the Treasury Dept. may utilize the remaining $350 billion;
Protects taxpayers by allowing the Treasury Dept. to take an ownership stake in participating companies. In addition, if after five years TARP has incurred a net loss, the President must propose legislation that would force participating companies to reimburse the government to make up the difference;
Sets up an insurance program, funded by the financial industry, to guarantee companies’ troubled assets, including mortgage-backed securities purchased prior to March 14 this year;
Curbs executive pay for companies utilizing TARP;
Sets up two oversight committees, a Financial Stability Board, and a congressional oversight panel, to which the Financial Stability Board would report;
Creates renewable energy tax breaks for individuals and businesses, including a deduction for the purchase of solar panels; as well as continuing other tax breaks that were set to expire; and extends relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) by another year;
Allows the SEC to suspend the required mark-to-market accounting standards and orders a study to be done on the rule’s impact on financial institutions;
Shields bank deposits by temporarily raising the FDIC insurance cap to $250,000 from $100,000; and temporarily increases the federal insurance level for credit union savings to $250,000, both till the end of 2009.
We’re appreciative of the efforts of our congressional leaders in both houses as well as of our peers at NAR. Their efforts helped secure adequate protections for both consumers and taxpayers, as well as stricter oversight protocols than what were initially contained in the legislation. C.A.R. will continue to study and report to you additional information and analysis through our weekly “C.A.R. Newsline” and “Market Matters” e-mail newsletters.
Sincerely,
William E. Brown
2008 President
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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