Here's an excellent audio overview from Chicago Public Radio's "This American Life" of the recent mess that became the mortgage market. It's definitely worth an hour of your time whether you're in the business or just watching from the outside...
The Giant Pool of Money
A special program about the housing crisis produced in a special collaboration with NPR news. We explain it all to you. What does the housing crisis have to do with the turmoil on Wall street? Why did banks make half-million dollar loans to people without jobs or income? And why is everyone talking so much about the 1930s? It all comes back to the Giant Pool of Money.
24 May 2008
Affordability on the Rise
After dropping to the sub-20% range about a year ago, entry level home affordability has more than doubled recently. One more indicator that this is a great time to buy.
Here's the article from the California Association of Realtors...
The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California stood at 44 percent in the first quarter of 2008, compared with 26 percent for the same period a year ago, according to a report released Tuesday by C.A.R.
C.A.R.'s First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase an entry-level home in California. C.A.R. also reports first-time buyer indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The Index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for first-time buyers in the state.
The minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $356,350 in California in the first quarter of 2008 was $67,830, based on an adjustable interest rate of 5.65 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $2,260 for the first quarter of 2008.
Here's the article from the California Association of Realtors...
The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California stood at 44 percent in the first quarter of 2008, compared with 26 percent for the same period a year ago, according to a report released Tuesday by C.A.R.
C.A.R.'s First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase an entry-level home in California. C.A.R. also reports first-time buyer indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The Index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for first-time buyers in the state.
The minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $356,350 in California in the first quarter of 2008 was $67,830, based on an adjustable interest rate of 5.65 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $2,260 for the first quarter of 2008.
22 May 2008
The Tide is Turning - at least statistically...
The statistics are beginning to indicate a general turn-around in the base home market. While it's still difficult to assess the high-end direction, the low-end is beginning to turn around and that should help investors feel better about the mid- and high-end market very soon. In the meantime, housing is undoubtedly becoming more affordable for most of America (and California...).
From CAR's Market Matters:
The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California rose to 44 percent in the first quarter of 2008, up dramatically from only 26 percent in the same quarter a year ago and 33 percent in the final quarter of 2007, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index. Households needed an income of $67,830 to purchase a home costing $356,350, which is 85 percent of the statewide median home price. The income requirement was 30 percent lower than a year ago and is closer to the state’s median income of $50,700 – good news for first-time and other homebuyers considering a home purchase. Sacramento and the High Desert regions topped the list of most affordable regions at 64 percent, with Monterey and San Francisco the least affordable at 29 and 30 percent, respectively.
Everybody knows job growth helps drive demand for homes. One of the reasons the San Francisco Bay Area continues to experience a softer real estate market decline is the fact that San Francisco created an estimated 10,000 new technology and other professional jobs and continued to experience population growth, adding more than 12,000 new residents in 2007 alone, the “San Francisco Chronicle” reported. Parts of the Silicon Valley kept pace in job growth, and both areas had a significant increase in new home construction. San Francisco added 2,500 new homes, the most in almost two decades. That trend is expected to continue this year and next with 3,281 units approved for construction in areas like Rincon Hill, the Transbay Terminal Area, Hunter’s Point Shipyard and Candlestick Point.
The Chronicle also noticed that foreclosure figures published by various organizations sometimes contradict one another. So it was last week when RealtyTrac reported a 4 percent increase in foreclosures and the highest level of foreclosure activity since it began tracking those numbers in 2005, while Foreclosures.com reported that its figures showed a drop in preforeclosures of more than 5 percent. What gives? It all depends on how you count them and how you choose to interpret the results. RealtyTrac’s foreclosure numbers combine preforeclosure activity with actual foreclosures, while Foreclosures.com separates preforeclosures from foreclosures on the theory that not all preforeclosures ultimately end up as foreclosures. That’s why RealtyTrac trends point toward a continued foreclosure problem while Foreclosure.com’s figures tend to be more optimistic.
Housing starts were up 8.2 percent nationally in April, their largest increase in two years, and that good news spilled over into parts of California. In San Diego County, 224 multi-family building permits were issued in April, up from only 17 in March. Single-family permits, meanwhile, climbed from 193 in March to 484 in April, the largest one-month total since July 2007. Despite the increases, economists expect new construction growth to continue to be stunted while the significant backlog of foreclosed existing homes is reduced in the coming months.
From CAR's Market Matters:
The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California rose to 44 percent in the first quarter of 2008, up dramatically from only 26 percent in the same quarter a year ago and 33 percent in the final quarter of 2007, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index. Households needed an income of $67,830 to purchase a home costing $356,350, which is 85 percent of the statewide median home price. The income requirement was 30 percent lower than a year ago and is closer to the state’s median income of $50,700 – good news for first-time and other homebuyers considering a home purchase. Sacramento and the High Desert regions topped the list of most affordable regions at 64 percent, with Monterey and San Francisco the least affordable at 29 and 30 percent, respectively.
Everybody knows job growth helps drive demand for homes. One of the reasons the San Francisco Bay Area continues to experience a softer real estate market decline is the fact that San Francisco created an estimated 10,000 new technology and other professional jobs and continued to experience population growth, adding more than 12,000 new residents in 2007 alone, the “San Francisco Chronicle” reported. Parts of the Silicon Valley kept pace in job growth, and both areas had a significant increase in new home construction. San Francisco added 2,500 new homes, the most in almost two decades. That trend is expected to continue this year and next with 3,281 units approved for construction in areas like Rincon Hill, the Transbay Terminal Area, Hunter’s Point Shipyard and Candlestick Point.
The Chronicle also noticed that foreclosure figures published by various organizations sometimes contradict one another. So it was last week when RealtyTrac reported a 4 percent increase in foreclosures and the highest level of foreclosure activity since it began tracking those numbers in 2005, while Foreclosures.com reported that its figures showed a drop in preforeclosures of more than 5 percent. What gives? It all depends on how you count them and how you choose to interpret the results. RealtyTrac’s foreclosure numbers combine preforeclosure activity with actual foreclosures, while Foreclosures.com separates preforeclosures from foreclosures on the theory that not all preforeclosures ultimately end up as foreclosures. That’s why RealtyTrac trends point toward a continued foreclosure problem while Foreclosure.com’s figures tend to be more optimistic.
Housing starts were up 8.2 percent nationally in April, their largest increase in two years, and that good news spilled over into parts of California. In San Diego County, 224 multi-family building permits were issued in April, up from only 17 in March. Single-family permits, meanwhile, climbed from 193 in March to 484 in April, the largest one-month total since July 2007. Despite the increases, economists expect new construction growth to continue to be stunted while the significant backlog of foreclosed existing homes is reduced in the coming months.
17 May 2008
Home sales up -- first since '05
There's finally some good news hitting the headlines and while it's a start, I'm sure the media will continue their focus on the bad news. However, this is one more indication that potential buyers are getting more comfortable with the current conditions and are seeing this as a good time to pick up some of the excellent deals that exist. Activity on the Coast seems to have increased lately and I would expect that once we get a few homes in escrow, the momentum will continue...
Click here for the Press Democrat article.
Click here for the Press Democrat article.
03 May 2008
Is the median price the median price?
"Just like saying the average nationwide temperature today is 57 degrees doesn't tell you anything, the same is true for real estate prices," Yun said. "The only way to tell what your own home is really worth is to look at local-market conditions, do Internet research and utilize professionals (such as licensed appraisers) to help determine the value of your home." NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
This article helps explain what I've been telling my clients for a while now - the median price fluctuations can be due to dramatic changes on one end of the market while little may be changing in another. You really need to focus on your piece of the market and evaluate accordingly.
Click here for the entire Wall Street Journal Marketwatch article.
This article helps explain what I've been telling my clients for a while now - the median price fluctuations can be due to dramatic changes on one end of the market while little may be changing in another. You really need to focus on your piece of the market and evaluate accordingly.
Click here for the entire Wall Street Journal Marketwatch article.
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